WFCA Rumour Mill RoundUpDate Volume 25 Issue 3

Seedling Demand Forecasts Show 300-milion/year A Long Way Off—If Ever

This table forecasts seedling demand averaged over five-year periods until mid-century. The trend is far below current BC reforestation sector’s capacity of 300-million/yr. See the full set of forecasts here.

The BC reforestation sector is not likely to return to the annual seedling demand levels we saw at the beginning of this decade according to recent forecasts produced by the Forest Genetics Council. In 2020 the sector peaked above 300-milliion seedlings planted. Lately, tree nurseries and planting contractors have seen demand drop by 20% due primarily to the shrinking harvest. It is likely to stay in that range for the foreseeable future based on the Council’s analyses of projected harvests, public reforestation investments, and the effects of climate change on species suitability.

Forecasting future reforestation demand has had a less than perfect track record. Early in the last decade planting demand was forecasted to collapse. But factors like the mountain pine beetle assault and increasing federal and provincial forest restoration investments had planners pondering if the sector could actually match the growing reforestation demand. Meanwhile, in 2018 when seedling needs were continuing to rise, the Forest Genetics Council correctly anticipated the present slump using similar forecasting methods as their most recent estimates. Depressingly, these latest forecasts seem credible.

Nature, of course, doesn’t run models. And data is, well, just data. Also, there’s always uncertainty with maybe a black swan somewhere, or not. More realistically, history shows policy decisions by our government can significantly affect the need for seedlings. Just consider the last three decades, starting with the FRDA backlog reforestation surge of the 90s, the zeroing of government planting in the aughts due to BC budget austerity, then the last decade’s stimulus of public investments under federal and provincial carbon programs. Given the growing symptoms of climate change affecting our forests, this public policy effect is noteworthy. Unfortunately, history also shows when a government heads into austerity, as we are now, reforestation has been one of the first things to get cut. The good news—to stretch the definition of good news—is that, so far, our Province’s~40-million seedling annual Forest Investment Program remains unmolested. The other good news: at least the forecasts aren’t worsening…

Signs Are Good, So Far, For BC Interior ‘25 Spring Planting Campaign

Wait for the sign: an auspicious portent last year over a planting camp near Burns Lake. 2025, so far, is going well, according to field reports. Photo LL.

According to information from provincial seedling storage operators, about a third of their tree cartons have been delivered to the field since Interior planting began in April. If things continue to go smoothly these refrigerated warehouses will be mostly empty by the summer solstice. Summer hot-lift planting usually begins again around July. This year’s provincial planting volume is down about 60-million from the 2020 +300-million estimated to be the sector’s full capacity. That reduction in work for the overall seasonal labour force of approximately 7000 has been hardest on new recruits with only half of the usual thousand or so rookies hired, according to anecdotal reports. New First Aid regulations seem to be working with both contractors and WorkSafeBC figuring out what they mean in practice. Alberta’s planting at ~100-million has not been affected like the BC program allowing some BC planters to continue to cross the Cordillera for the summer planting east of here. No contractors are shorthanded with some reporting more returnees due to stunted prospects in other parts of the work economy. Drought remains a concern due to the lower snowpack levels with accounts of the last of the snow on blocks, in some places, seeming to sublimate. Anticipated wetter weather fronts this month may offer some relief. But continental long-range forecasts say things will heat up across the country to above normal later this spring and summer. As we go to press, crews are waiting out wildfire activity in Manitoba related to a recent heat wave.

Forestry Social Media Site The Cache Features “Ask An Expert”

The Cache traffics in resource materials, job postings, and lately expert advice on First Aid, employment standards, and career and occupational paths.

Following the launch last March of an online Job board at The Cache, the industry website has continued to grow with a new “Ask an Expert” section to answer questions posed by workers. The Job Board provides a method of posting work opportunities outside the channels of conventional social media. Postings have thus far included openings for tree planters, nursery workers, camp and kitchen workers, and firefighters. “Ask an Expert” articles have addressed topics related to new first aid guidelines, personal protective equipment, and employment standards, with new topics covered weekly.

The Cache is not intended to replace existing social media on Meta (Facebook) or Reddit, but instead it is designed to work in parallel and provide a forum for employers and employees that choose to avoid other media. Moving forward, The Cache will also provide a hub for online training opportunities, career development mapping, and other resources for people seeking to learn about silviculture work or advance their careers in the field.

Posting jobs on The Cache is free, and job ads and links to The Cache are shared across other social media platforms to broaden the audience. With the primary recruitment pool for silviculture comprising young people between the ages of 18 and 25, The Cache fills an important space in the industry social media strategy. The Cache will also provide an important means of centralizing and increasing access to training as the industry adapts its workforce and skill sets to deal with changing industry needs, new hazards associated with climate change, and shifts in economic conditions and workforce composition.